The Five Emerging Trends

Humanitarian work is expected to be shaped by five key trends influenced by climate change: increased heat-related deaths, more extreme weather events, the spread of dangerous diseases, deteriorating health systems, and insufficient climate financing for the most vulnerable countries. Particular attention is raised on the effects of climate change in conflict areas where healthcare services are limited. Due to extreme weather conditions, such as heatwaves expected in the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and parts of Asia, communities face increased suffering, loss of life, and displacement, leading to further inequalities.

The rise in the number of climate-related disasters is alarming, with a significant increase noted since the 1960s and by almost 35 percent since the 1990s. Low-income countries bear the brunt, with over 400,000 deaths in the last decade due to extreme weather. Floods not only claim lives but also exacerbate the spread of infectious diseases and weaken health infrastructures, which are crucial in combating the 218 diseases known to be worsened by climate change. Hotter temperatures and extreme weather patterns such as heavy precipitation and flooding have been linked to increased disease outbreaks, affecting over half of the 375 human diseases studied.

Conflict Compounds the Climate Crisis

War and violence add a complex layer to the already dire effects of climate change, with approximately several hundred million people living in areas stricken by both these adversities. Notably, the United Nations lists 12 of the 15 countries most vulnerable to climate disasters as also suffering from conflict. Access to health assistance in these regions is extremely challenging, with the number of people living in conflict areas doubling to between 1.2 and 2 billion in the past 20 years. Wartime conditions can lead to assaults on healthcare personnel, appropriation of medical facilities, and disruption of essential medical supplies.

The capacity to deliver humanitarian aid is also under unprecedented strain. Almost 300 million people were in acute need of assistance in 2024, up from 131 million five years earlier. However, funding has not kept pace with demand. Halfway through 2023, the UN reported a record funding gap, with only a fraction of the required Norwegian Kroner secured for humanitarian efforts. This shortfall illustrates the scope of the challenge and the urgent need for increased support and resources.

The convergence of climate change and conflict potentiates a health crisis of colossal proportions, and the global community faces an urgent call to action. Collaborative efforts that bridge the gap between climate mitigation and humanitarian aid are crucial. As natural disasters increase and health systems are burdened further, addressing these intertwined threats becomes an imperative for safeguarding the health and well-being of vulnerable populations worldwide.