Trump Poised for Potential Landslide in Iowa as Rivals Scramble for Ground
With the Iowa caucuses imminent, former President Donald Trump appears set to dominate, as polls signal a potentially substantial victory over his Republican rivals.
Riley Harper
- 2024-01-14
- Updated 11:08 AM ET
(NewsNibs) - As the Iowa caucuses draw near, scheduled for a mere three days from now, Donald Trump looks poised for a victory that could reassert his dominance in the Republican field. FiveThirtyEight's average of polls gives Trump an impressive 52% support in Iowa, a lead of more than 30 percentage points above his closest competitors, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis. Political analysts are watching to see if Trump can secure a win large enough to stave off Haley's recent advances in the New Hampshire primary race, where she has been narrowing the gap according to recent opinion polls. The historic record for a contested Republican caucus win in Iowa stands at a 12.8-point margin, achieved by Bob Dole in 1988, which Trump is currently predicted to far exceed.
The New Hampshire Primary Tightens
The focus beyond Iowa turns to New Hampshire, where the primary is scheduled for January 23. Here, Nikki Haley is shown closing in on Trump, with one poll indicating only a 7-point gap. Despite a slip in the New Hampshire polls, Ron DeSantis has been vigorously campaigning, aiming to make a strong impression in Iowa. His strategists hope that a good performance in Iowa would catapult him into a stronger position for the upcoming primaries. Meanwhile, in the backdrop, Trump's campaign, co-managed by Chris LaCivita, is leveraging the "intensity" of Trump's base, cautioning against complacency, and mobilizing a significant data mining and get-out-the-vote operation in the state. In contrast, despite DeSantis’s extensive Iowa campaigning, Iowa's governor's support, and an ambitious tour of all 99 counties, recent polls indicate he might still trail behind Trump and Haley.
Implications for the Presidential Race
The results from the upcoming Iowa caucuses, where the state's 40 Republican National Convention delegates will be awarded proportionally, carry weighty implications. A substantial win in Iowa would help counteract any impetus gained by Haley in New Hampshire, with political analysts noting that Trump needs a commanding lead – possibly a 15 to 20 percentage points margin as advised by Republican strategist Doug Heye – to maintain his perceived air of inevitability. Iowa State University professor David Peterson suggests a 35-point win for Trump could solidify his standing comparable to an "incumbent," despite Iowa's spotty record in predicting the ultimate Republican nominee. Moreover, DeSantis faces tremendous pressure; a third-place finish in Iowa could severely impact the trajectory of his campaign. In the broader race, despite the challenges in the early states, Trump remains a favorite to secure the Republican nomination, with strong leads in South Carolina and other key states, as stated by analyst Kyle Kondik.
As Iowa readies for its caucuses, Trump's lead appears formidable. The next few days will be crucial in determining the potential shift in the Republican landscape, influencing the momentum as the candidates vie for the nomination ahead of the Republican National Convention.
